Keep Conflicting Figures Until You Understand Them
A newer or larger figure is not automatically the right one. Reconciliation asks whether sources describe the same population, place, period, definition and unit, whether one repeats another, and what can actually be combined. Preserve the original claims and the reasoning that led to a correction.
Start from the secondary-data review. That page teaches source fitness and a finding-to-recommendation trail. This page adds a complete multi-source reconciliation where a response brief must handle different dates, scope, units and partial overlap.
The Complete Fictional Packet
All records, sites and figures below are invented. A response lead asks for a current count of households and people requiring accommodation support in a defined response area. The packet does not supply that complete current count.
| Record and Exact Locator | What It Actually Describes | Reported Figure and Lineage |
|---|---|---|
| S1, operator register, aggregate total row | Households staying in collective sites A, B and C at the October 20 cutoff | 120 households containing 480 people; original operational record, not a survey of every household needing support |
| S2, public briefing, paragraph 2 | October 21 summary citing S1, with no new collection or method | States "600 people" after adding S1's 120 households to 480 people; this addition mixes units and is invalid |
| S3, accommodation team's checked aggregate, total row | Households in sites A and B and private hosting arrangements at the October 22 cutoff | 90 households containing 360 people; original record with a different date and coverage |
For this exercise only, the authorized source owners supply a further permitted aggregate reconciliation: 60 households occur in both S1 and S3, using a consistent household definition. They do not supply the number of overlapping people or a complete October 22 count for site C or other accommodation. No identifiers are provided or needed in this teaching packet.
Work Through the Conflict
- Follow lineage. S2 depends on S1 and adds no independent measurement. Ask the briefing owner to correct the unit error; do not change S1's source figure to match it.
- Keep units explicit. S1 reports both households and people. Adding 120 households and 480 people produces no meaningful total. Do not derive a household total by dividing a people count by an assumed family size.
- Align time and coverage before a current claim. S1 covers three collective sites on October 20; S3 covers two of those sites plus hosting on October 22. People may have moved, and omitted locations remain unknown. Neither table is a complete current needs census.
- Use overlap only for the question it answers. With the supplied consistent household linkage, the union of households recorded across these two dated records is 120 + 90 - 60 = 150. That is a historical union across different snapshots and coverage, not the number currently present or requiring support on October 22.
- Do not invent a people overlap. The available figures do not establish how many of S1's 480 people are included in S3's 360. Household overlap alone does not justify assuming the same household composition or calculating a distinct people union.
The Reconciled Brief
"S1 records 120 households/480 people in three collective sites at its October 20 cutoff. S3 records 90 households/360 people in a different accommodation scope at its October 22 cutoff. An owner-supplied aggregate linkage identifies 150 distinct households across the two dated records, but the packet does not establish a complete current household or people total for the response area. S2's 600-person claim mixes units and needs correction."
Decision consequence: the response lead can request a time-aligned, permitted accommodation update covering site C, hosting and other missing locations, while using the specific known service concerns through responsible response arrangements. The packet does not support allocating assistance by an invented area total, estimating movement, calculating a trend or announcing unmet need as the total registered population.
Keep a Resolution Record
Record the decision question, original figures and locators, units, collection and publication times, coverage, lineage, permitted overlap evidence, calculation, bounded conclusion and unresolved checks. Name the actual source and decision owners. A public correction should identify the erroneous claim and corrected scope without exposing private linkage information.
If matching real records would require sensitive access or unsafe reidentification, stop at the permitted aggregate questions and refer the linkage decision to the responsible data/protection roles. Do not publish personal identifiers to demonstrate deduplication. If overlap remains unknown, retain that unknown rather than assuming either zero or complete duplication.
The UNHCR Needs Assessment Handbook, printed pages 29-30 and 41-43, supports source transparency, coverage and decision-relevant analysis. The assessment-cycle guidance, Analyze, supports a clear source basis and explicit gaps. The three records, unit error, linkage facts and all calculations are original fictional teaching material. They are not a real displacement estimate or a population-linkage method validated for a local dataset.